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Virginia Beach oceanfront skyline with commercial buildings - TenantBase February 2026 Commercial Real Estate Market Report
Commercial Real Estate Virginia Beach TenantBase Newsletter

Investor Conviction & Market Momentum

TenantBase Team
TenantBase Team
February 9, 2026 • Investor conviction, industrial delivery, Fed leadership shift, and Virginia Beach spotlight.
TenantBase

Commercial Real Estate Newsletter 

February 10, 2026
  
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TL;DR
  • 95% of investors plan to maintain or increase buying activity in 2026, with $562 billion in projected investment volume.4,5
  • Major industrial delivery in Houston showcases flight-to-quality, with 1.7M SF park achieving 100% lease-up.7,10
  • Kevin Warsh nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May 2026.16,17
  • Virginia Beach sees multifamily land acquisition and Norfolk's MacArthur Center slated for demolition and redevelopment.1,2

Welcome to the February 2026 edition of your commercial real estate newsletter from TenantBase. The market enters this week with a definitive shift in sentiment, moving from a period of "cautious observation" to a phase of active, strategic deployment.1,10 A fresh 2026 North American Investor Intentions Survey reveals that a staggering 95% of investors plan to maintain or increase their buying activity this year, signaling a broad-based move toward a new market equilibrium.4 While the office sector continues its structural evolution, the industrial and multifamily sectors are seeing renewed rent growth and massive infrastructure-linked project completions.2,7

The 2026 Investor Conviction

A new consensus is forming as institutional capital prepares for a broad reentry into the market, supported by stabilizing pricing and improving debt conditions.4,5

Key signals

$562 Billion Target: Total U.S. commercial real estate investment is now projected to hit $562 billion for the full year 2026, a 16% increase that would return volume to pre-pandemic averages.5

Tolerance for Leverage: Nearly 49% of investors surveyed indicated they would tolerate short-term negative leverage, a clear sign that market participants are looking past current borrowing costs toward long-term rental growth and future refinancing opportunities.4

Preferred Sectors: Multifamily remains the premier asset class, targeted by 74% of investors, while industrial and logistics assets follow at 37% as e-commerce and supply chain resilience continue to drive demand.4

Alternative Favorites: Among alternative assets, self-storage, healthcare, and industrial outdoor storage (IOS) have emerged as the most favored categories for 2026 as investors seek recession-resilient yield.4

Industrial Delivery: The Weiser Business Park

The industrial sector's "flight-to-quality" was underscored today, February 9, with a major delivery in the Texas market.7

Final Phase Delivery: Trammell Crow Company and Clarion Partners successfully delivered the third and final phase of Weiser Business Park in northwest Houston.7

Scale and Connectivity: The final phase includes two Class-A buildings totaling 628,000 square feet, featuring 36-foot clear heights and ESFR sprinkler systems designed for modern logistics users.7

Market Significance: The 1.7 million-square-foot park is already 100% leased in its first two phases, demonstrating the sustained demand for high-quality industrial space in strategic export metros.7,10

Macro Outlook: The Fed Leadership Shift

The macroeconomic landscape is bracing for a significant leadership transition following a major announcement on January 30, 2026.16

The Warsh Nomination: President Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve when Powell's term expires in May 2026.16,17

Market Reaction: The nomination is viewed as a signal toward potential "higher-for-longer" rate stability, though early market signals suggest Warsh may be more aligned with administrative preferences for rate cuts to support growth.16

Current Rate Environment: On January 28, the Fed held interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, a decision that has allowed 10-year Treasury-linked commercial loan rates to stabilize near 4.93% to 6.50% for conventional and agency products.11,14

Capital Stack: Q4 Performance & Earnings (Feb 9, 2026)

Institutional asset managers are reporting record-breaking years, signaling a flush capital environment for 2026.12,13

Ares Management Records: Ares Management Corporation announced today it has crossed $600 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM), establishing new annual records for fundraising and investing of over $100 billion in late 2025.12

Specialty Lending: Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) is scheduled to release its full-year earnings tomorrow, February 10, with investors watching for stability in its $2.1 billion loan portfolio.13,15

Sublease Inventory Peak: In a vital bellwether for the office market, sublease inventory has declined 20% since early 2024, matching its lowest point in three years and suggesting that overall office vacancy may peak within the next few quarters.11

Market Spotlight: Virginia Beach & Hampton Roads

The Coastal Virginia region enters February 2026 with significant urban redevelopment news and high-profile transaction activity.1,3

MacArthur Center Demolition: In a landmark announcement on February 6, 2026, the City of Norfolk confirmed that the struggling MacArthur Center mall will be demolished this year to make way for a multi-phase, mixed-use redevelopment.1

Urban Redevelopment Plans: The 23-acre site is envisioned to become a downtown hub featuring market-rate residential units, a hotel, and street-level retail connected by open neighborhood spaces.1

Class A Office Sale: Highlighting local liquidity, the 39,804-square-foot Oceana Center One office building in Virginia Beach sold for $5.2 million on February 4, 2026, to be occupied by a specialized law firm.3

Multifamily Momentum: Sustained confidence in the region's housing market was reinforced on January 30 with the $2.85 million acquisition of a six-acre parcel on Virginia Beach Blvd by The Franklin Johnson Group for a new multifamily project.2

Retail Liquidity: The regional retail sector remains resilient, evidenced by the $31.5 million sale of the 126,000-square-foot Downtown Short Pump center in nearby Richmond, which closed in late 2025 but continues to influence regional comps.10

Quick FAQ

What's driving investor confidence in 2026?
95% of investors plan to maintain or increase buying activity, with stabilizing pricing and improving debt conditions supporting a projected $562 billion in investment volume.4,5

Who will be the next Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell's term expires in May 2026.16,17

What sectors are investors targeting?
Multifamily leads at 74%, followed by industrial/logistics at 37%, with self-storage, healthcare, and IOS gaining traction among alternatives.4

Sources

  1. Virginia Business — Norfolk's MacArthur Center to be demolished this year (Feb 6, 2026)
  2. Thalhimer — Virginia Beach Land Sells for $2.85M for Future Development (Feb 4, 2026)
  3. Traded — Suffolk Tower Holdings Acquires Oceana Center One in Virginia Beach (Feb 4, 2026)
  4. CBRE — 2026 North American Investor Intentions Survey (Jan 29, 2026)
  5. Boston Real Estate Times — Investors Plan to Deploy More Capital in 2026 (Feb 4, 2026)
  6. Cushman & Wakefield — Six for 2026: U.S. Real Estate Trends to Watch
  7. Clarion Partners — Clarion & TCC Deliver 628K SF Final Phase of Weiser Business Park (Feb 9, 2026)
  8. Altus Group — CRE This Week: What's impacting the United States market? (Feb 9, 2026)
  9. Henrico Citizen — Business in brief: Downtown Short Pump Sale (Feb 9, 2026)
  10. Realty News Report — Colliers Houston 2026 Trends Event (Feb 9, 2026)
  11. Terrydale Capital — Commercial Loan Rate Averages February 2026 (Feb 4, 2026)
  12. Ares Management — Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results (Feb 5, 2026)
  13. Business Wire — ACRE Schedules Earnings Release for February 10, 2026
  14. Federal Reserve — FOMC Statement (January 28, 2026)
  15. Investor Resources — ACRE Earnings Presentation Q4 2025
  16. America's Credit Unions — President picks Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair (Feb 2, 2026)
  17. The Bahnsen Group — Economic Analysis of Fed Leadership Shift (Feb 6, 2026)
© TenantBase • For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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