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The AI Supercycle & The Maturity Wave
TenantBase Team
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January 14, 2026 • CRE outlook, AI infrastructure, refinancing wave, office stabilization, and Nashville spotlight.
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TenantBase
Commercial Real Estate NewsletterJanuary 14, 2026
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TL;DR
- AI infrastructure buildouts are accelerating, with power availability becoming the gating factor.2,3
- A major CRE maturity wave is driving recapitalizations, restructurings, and increased deal flow into 2026.4,5
- Office is stabilizing unevenly, with persistent flight-to-quality dynamics.6
- Nashville remains tight in retail and resilient in industrial, supported by healthy demand.11
Welcome to your commercial real estate newsletter from TenantBase. As the curtain closed on 2025, the industry transitioned from a period of high-rate resilience toward a phase of more selective, execution-driven decision-making.1 While macro-uncertainty characterized much of the year, we enter 2026 with a market increasingly divided by quality, technological integration, and power availability.1,6 Understanding the widening divide in asset performance—where best-in-class properties decouple from legacy stock—is now a fundamental requirement for navigating the year ahead.1,6
December’s Strategic Analysis: The AI Supercycle & The Maturity Wave
This month’s major themes highlight a structural reset in the capital stack and a continued surge in digital infrastructure investment.1,4
The AI Infrastructure Supercycle
The most dominant narrative of 2025 has matured from speculative hype into a sustained global construction cycle focused on digital infrastructure.2,3
Key signals
Record Spending: U.S. data center spending is projected to reach approximately $86 billion in 2026, reflecting a sharp increase driven by AI workloads and cloud-related demand.3
Power as the Primary Constraint: Power availability has replaced land as the primary bottleneck for new data center development, as demand increasingly exceeds the capabilities of existing grid infrastructure.2
Hyperscale Dominance: Hyperscalers are front-loading campus builds to support advanced computing infrastructure, reinforcing the concentration of capital and development activity among a small group of global operators.3
Emerging Markets: Due to power constraints in traditional hubs, growth is increasingly shifting toward repurposed industrial sites and secondary regions with greater grid flexibility.2,3
The $1.5 Trillion Maturity Wave
The era of “extend and amend” is meeting its deadline as the peak of the refinancing cycle arrives in 2026.4,5
Rolling Wave: Well over $1.5 trillion in U.S. commercial real estate loans are scheduled to mature by the end of 2026, with some estimates approaching $1.8 trillion.4,5
Multifamily Peak: Multifamily loan maturities are projected to surge 56% in 2026, rising to approximately $162.1 billion from $104.1 billion in 2025.4
Market Opportunity: This refinancing wall is expected to increase transaction activity as owners pursue recapitalizations, balance-sheet restructuring, or asset sales.4
Office Market: Finding the Structural Floor
The office sector is showing early signs of stabilization, though recovery remains concentrated in trophy assets and high-growth markets.6
Vacancy Stabilization: National office vacancy is expected to peak near 19% in 2025, with office attendance settling into a new steady state.6
Positive Momentum: More than one-third of major tenants plan to increase their portfolio requirements over the next two years.6
Flight to Quality: Class A and trophy assets in vibrant mixed-use districts continue to outperform, reinforcing a widening performance gap between prime and non-prime office space.6
2026 Outlook: The Road to Recovery
Analysts expect 2026 to be shaped by supply normalization and improving transaction conditions as interest-rate volatility moderates.1,4
Federal Reserve & Rate Normalization: Following rate cuts late in 2025, the Federal Reserve has signaled a more measured policy stance entering 2026.8 Market commentary suggests future adjustments will remain data-dependent as inflation and growth trends evolve.7,8
Supply-Side Relief: New office completions in 2025 fell well below the 10-year annual average, providing a welcome reprieve from oversupply pressures.6
ESG as a Value Driver: Sustainability has shifted from a conceptual goal to a financial consideration, with healthy-building features and certifications associated with measurable rent premiums across office assets.10
Market Spotlight: Nashville, Tennessee
Nashville continues to mature from a breakout boom into a more disciplined and institutionally oriented commercial real estate market.9
Retail Tightness: The retail sector remains exceptionally tight, with available lease space consistently below 5%, reflecting limited new supply and resilient consumer demand.11
Industrial Resilience: Industrial vacancy declined to approximately 4.4% in Q3 2025, supported by steady demand from manufacturing, logistics, and regional distribution users.9
Urban-Oriented Development: Tenant demand continues to favor walkable, mixed-use environments that integrate office, residential, and retail uses.6
Quick FAQ
What’s the biggest constraint for data center growth right now?
Power availability and grid capacity are increasingly the limiting factors for new development.2
What’s driving CRE transaction activity into 2026?
Debt maturities and refinancing pressure are expected to drive recapitalizations, restructurings, and asset sales.4,5
Is office recovering?
Stabilization is emerging, but performance remains concentrated in higher-quality buildings and locations.6
Sources
- Deloitte Insights — 2026 commercial real estate outlook
- Newmark — 2025 United States Data Center Market Outlook
- MOCA Systems — Sizing the Surge: U.S. Data Center Construction Outlook to 2030
- MMG Real Estate Advisors — The 2026 CRE Refinancing Wall
- PBMares — Preparing for the CRE Maturity Wall
- CBRE — U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025: Office & Occupier
- Goldman Sachs — The Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
- Federal Reserve — FOMC Policy Statements (Late 2025)
- Cushman & Wakefield — Nashville Office MarketBeat Q3 2025
- IWBI / peer-reviewed research — Healthy-building rent premium evidence
- Colliers — Nashville Retail Market Report Q2 2025
© TenantBase • For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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