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Market Insight Market Report San Antonio

CRE Market Report: March 2026 | San Antonio Market Spotlight

TenantBase Team
TenantBase Team
TenantBase — Market Intelligence

Commercial Real Estate Market Report

CRE Policy & Rate Outlook  |  Market Spotlight: San Antonio
March 10, 2026

The market reaches mid-March at a policy crossroads: FinCEN's sweeping AML reporting rule has been reshaping closings for nine days, the Fed holds rates at a 15-month plateau, and tomorrow's CPI print sets the stage for the most consequential rate decision of the year. Here is what the data says.

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This Month at a Glance
  • FinCEN's nationwide residential real estate reporting rule has been in effect since March 1, 2026 — the most significant AML policy shift for closings in a decade.5,7
  • The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% in January; tomorrow's March 11 CPI print is the final key data point before the March 17–18 FOMC meeting — the first real opportunity for a 2026 rate cut.3,4,14,15
  • 95% of investors plan to maintain or increase CRE buying activity in 2026, with multifamily preferred by 74% of respondents.4,11
  • AT&T has vacated its 400,000 SF downtown San Antonio tower for a 100,000 SF suburban footprint — a net loss of 300,000 SF to the CBD.9,11
  • Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May 2026; the 10-year Treasury has since stabilized near 4.04%.4,16,17,19

This TenantBase commercial real estate market report analyzes key developments shaping the industry in March 2026, with a spotlight on the San Antonio market. Nine days into March, the market is navigating two forces that rarely converge: a major federal compliance regime that has been rewriting closing workflows since March 1, and a Fed rate cycle that may finally deliver its first cut of the year in just one week. Together, they are redefining the transaction environment for investors, lenders, and tenants across nearly every market.5,15

Beneath those macro headlines, fundamentals continue to diverge sharply by asset class and submarket. The data this month tells a story of disciplined capital, selective opportunity, and one major Sun Belt city navigating a defining moment in its downtown office cycle. For submarket-level guidance on how these conditions are affecting tenant decisions right now, TenantBase's market resources offer on-the-ground intelligence for occupiers across the country.3,4,9,20

The FinCEN Reporting Mandate In Effect Since March 1

Nine days ago, the Department of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network activated its most sweeping real estate compliance rule in a decade — replacing a patchwork of city-level Geographic Targeting Orders with a single, nationwide reporting standard that affects every non-financed residential closing in the country.5,7

What triggers a filing: Certain real estate professionals — including title agents and attorneys — are now required to submit "Real Estate Reports" for non-financed residential transfers to legal entities or trusts. The rule covers all-cash and non-institutionally financed transfers of 1–4 family residential properties and vacant land intended for residential use.5,6,7

What must be disclosed: Reporting parties must provide the full legal name, date of birth, and taxpayer identification number (SSN or EIN) for each beneficial owner behind the purchasing entity — a direct extension of FinCEN's existing Corporate Transparency Act framework.5,6,7

What it replaces: The prior Geographic Targeting Orders applied only to select metro areas. This rule eliminates that geographic patchwork and creates a uniform federal AML standard for residential real estate nationwide.7,13

Operational impact: Title and escrow firms have been updating intake workflows since March 1. Experts anticipate a near-term lengthening of closing timelines as firms complete staff retraining and redesign disclosure forms to meet the new federal requirements.5,13,18

FOMC Watch: The Rate Decision Is One Week Away Mar 17–18

Following the January 28 decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, the commercial real estate industry is treating the March 17–18 FOMC meeting as the most consequential rate decision of the year — and tomorrow's CPI print as the number that will set the tone.3,14,15

3.50–3.75%
Current Fed Funds Rate — held since late 20253
2.4%
Annual CPI — most recent reading4
95%
Investors buying same or more CRE in 20264,11

The Fed's posture: Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in late January that monetary policy is not yet "significantly restrictive," framing the committee's approach as meeting-by-meeting and explicitly data-dependent. No forward guidance was offered.3

Tomorrow's CPI print: The March 11 Consumer Price Index release is the last major inflation data point before the FOMC convenes. The most recent reading came in at 2.4% annually. A second consecutive reading at or below that level would meaningfully raise the probability of a 25 basis point cut next week — and the bond market knows it.4

Investor positioning: CBRE's 2026 North American Investor Intentions Survey finds that 95% of respondents plan to maintain or increase CRE acquisitions this year — a level of conviction not seen since 2021, and a clear signal that institutional capital is no longer waiting for rate certainty to deploy.4,11

Rate Decision Calendar — Next 90 Days
  •  
    Today — Mar 10  This report published; market in pre-FOMC positioning mode.
  •  
    Mar 11, 2026  March CPI release — the upstream inflation data point that determines FOMC expectations.4
  •  
    Mar 17–18, 2026  FOMC meeting — first potential rate-cut decision of 2026; outcome will reprice commercial debt across all asset classes.3,14,15
  •  
    May 2026  Kevin Warsh expected to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair — a leadership transition with material implications for rate trajectory through year-end.16,17

Market Spotlight: San Antonio, Texas Stable Momentum

San Antonio enters mid-March 2026 with a diversified economic base and significant infrastructure completions — a market of contrasts where downtown office disruption is running alongside industrial tightening and high-end retail expansion.1,8

Office

AT&T's downtown exodus: The central business district is absorbing one of the most significant lease events of its current cycle. AT&T has relocated its downtown San Antonio workforce out of its 400,000 SF tower at 1010 N. St. Mary's St. and into a 100,000 SF suburban footprint in Westover Hills — a net removal of 300,000 SF from the CBD and a microcosm of the national corporate flight-to-suburb trend playing out in Sun Belt markets.9,11

Urban infrastructure completions: Street construction on downtown's core corridors has wrapped up, with portions of San Saba Street now reopened around the Zona Cultural. The Texas Cavaliers Education Center at the Alamo opened this month, adding a cultural anchor to the urban core that city leaders hope will drive foot traffic back to street-level retail.1

Retail

La Cantera expansion: Construction is underway at The Shops at La Cantera for two high-profile debuts — Dolce & Gabbana and a new Crate & Barrel — both expected to open by late 2026 following multi-million dollar build-outs. The additions signal continued luxury retailer confidence in San Antonio's affluent northwest corridor.14,15

Multifamily

Gradual rebalancing: San Antonio's housing market has been correcting off its 2023 peak throughout early 2026. The typical home value has settled near $245,251, down 3% year-over-year, shifting negotiating leverage toward buyers for the first time in several years. For multifamily investors, this repricing is creating more attractive entry points as oversupply from 2025's heavy delivery wave continues to be absorbed.13

Industrial

Vacancy improving despite supply pressure: San Antonio's industrial market has outperformed expectations through the supply wave of 2025, with vacancy tightening to 11.3% in early 2026. Healthcare distribution and logistics occupiers have driven consistent net absorption, underscoring a structural demand base that extends well beyond the market's military and tourism identity.12,13

Capital Stack & Current Rates

Lending conditions remain disciplined as the market processes the Warsh nomination and positions ahead of next week's FOMC decision. The 10-year Treasury has stabilized near 4.04% — meaningfully below its late-2023 peak — offering borrowers a more constructive fixed-rate environment heading into Q2.4,16,17,19

Product Rate Range Structure
Multifamily Fixed (properties >$6M) 4.99%–5.12% Agency / GSE19
Conventional Commercial Mortgage 5.36%–8.04% Bank / CMBS19
CMBS 10-Year Fixed 6.04%–7.54% Long-term certainty16,19
10-Year Treasury Yield ~4.04% Benchmark; early March 20264,19

Borrowers seeking long-term rate certainty have increasingly turned to the CMBS market, particularly for assets with stable in-place cash flow. Office sector delinquencies remain a headwind for CMBS spreads, but industrial, multifamily, and retail-anchored deals continue to clear the market efficiently. Next week's FOMC outcome could shift the calculus materially — borrowers with near-term decisions are watching closely.16,19

2026 Q1 Recap & Forward Outlook

With three weeks remaining in Q1, the CRE sector has successfully navigated one of the most policy-dense quarters in recent memory — and institutional conviction has emerged largely intact.

What defined Q1: January and February were shaped by the resolution of a 43-day federal government shutdown and a surge in institutional dry powder as large investors formally accepted the "higher-for-longer" rate environment rather than waiting for relief.3,4 The FinCEN mandate, now in effect, and the pending Fed leadership transition have added a new compliance and policy dimension heading into Q2.5,16,17

What to watch in Q2: The next three months will be defined by the Federal Reserve's leadership transition to Kevin Warsh and the first real stress test of the 2026 commercial mortgage maturity wave. Non-prime office assets will remain under pressure as large-block availabilities — including the AT&T tower in San Antonio — compete with suburban and repositioned product for a limited pool of large-block tenants.9,16,17 On the demand side, the industrial and data center sectors are expected to reach record-high leasing activity by early summer, driven by AI infrastructure buildouts that are front-loading capacity well ahead of operational need.4,11 Brokers and tenants navigating this shifting landscape can explore current availabilities through TenantBase's platform, which tracks active requirements and off-market opportunities across all major U.S. markets.20

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the new FinCEN real estate reporting rule actually require?
Effective March 1, 2026, title agents, attorneys, and certain other real estate professionals must file a Real Estate Report with FinCEN for any non-financed residential transfer to a legal entity or trust. The report must include the full legal name, date of birth, and taxpayer identification number (SSN or EIN) of every beneficial owner behind the purchasing entity. The rule is nationwide and replaces the prior Geographic Targeting Orders that applied only to select cities.5,6,7,18
When is the FOMC meeting and what is the market expecting?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets March 17–18, 2026 — one week from today. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its January 28 meeting. Tomorrow's March 11 CPI release is the critical upstream variable. A second consecutive reading near 2.4% would meaningfully raise the probability of a 25 basis point cut at next week's meeting. Fed Chair Powell has signaled no pre-committed path.3,4,14,15
What are current commercial mortgage rates as of March 2026?
As of early March 2026: multifamily fixed-rate debt on properties over $6M ranges from 4.99% to 5.12%; conventional commercial mortgages run 5.36% to 8.04%; CMBS 10-year fixed rates average 6.04% to 7.54%. The 10-year Treasury benchmark sits near 4.04%.19
Who is the next Federal Reserve Chair and what does it mean for rates?
President Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell when Powell's term expires in May 2026. Early market signals suggest Warsh may be more aligned with administrative preferences for rate reductions to support growth, though his confirmation and policy stance will be closely scrutinized through spring. The nomination has contributed to stability in long-term Treasury yields over the past several weeks.16,17
What is the San Antonio commercial real estate outlook for 2026?
San Antonio presents a split picture heading into Q2. Industrial vacancy has tightened to 11.3% on healthcare and logistics demand.12,13 High-end retail is expanding at La Cantera with Dolce & Gabbana and Crate & Barrel expected by late 2026.14,15 The downtown office market is absorbing AT&T's 300,000 SF net departure from the CBD.9,11 Multifamily is rebalancing with home values near $245,251, down 3% year-over-year.13
Which CRE sectors are institutional investors targeting in 2026?
According to CBRE's 2026 North American Investor Intentions Survey, multifamily leads all sectors at 74% investor preference, followed by industrial and logistics at 37%. Among alternative asset classes, self-storage, healthcare real estate, and industrial outdoor storage (IOS) rank as the top recession-resilient targets. A full 95% of investors surveyed plan to maintain or increase buying activity this year.4,11

Sources

  1. San Antonio Report — Which big San Antonio construction projects are on track for 2026?
  2. SWBC — 2025 Multifamily Recap & 2026 Trends in Texas
  3. J.P. Morgan — Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged to Start 2026
  4. CBRE — 2026 North American Investor Intentions Survey
  5. FinCEN.gov — Residential Real Estate Rule, Effective March 1, 2026
  6. Sands Anderson — How New FinCEN Reporting Requirements Will Affect Transfers
  7. PA Realtors — New FinCEN Reporting Requirement Begins March 1, 2026
  8. Capital Analytics Associates — San Antonio 2026 Economic Outlook
  9. MySA — AT&T Ditching Dallas Headquarters in Urban Exodus
  10. Bisnow — Blackstone to Launch Public Company to Acquire AI Data Centers, March 2026
  11. Marcus & Millichap — San Antonio 2026 Investment Forecast
  12. Partners Real Estate — San Antonio Industrial Market Report Q4 2025
  13. Pompa Realty Group — San Antonio Real Estate Market, March 2026 Update
  14. CultureMap San Antonio — 7 New Stores and Eateries to Debut at La Cantera
  15. MySA — Dolce & Gabbana Eyes New San Antonio Location in 2026
  16. America's Credit Unions — President Picks Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair
  17. The Bahnsen Group — Economic Analysis of Fed Leadership Shift, Feb 6, 2026
  18. Old Republic Title — New FinCEN Requirements for Title Agents, March 2026
  19. Commercial Loan Direct — Current Mortgage Rates and Indexes, March 2, 2026
  20. TenantBase — San Antonio Commercial Real Estate Listings 
© TenantBase  |  For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Rate data reflects market conditions as of early March 2026.
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